Lebanon Election’s Analysis With A Different View, The View That’s Less Expressed By Iranian Media

MEP: 18 years ago when General Michel Aoun, the army commander and the head of Lebanon’s military government sought refuge in the French Embassy at Beirut after leaving presidential palace for fear of Syrian forces, and exiled abroad, he had no idea about 18 years later, being the President of Lebanon, backed by Syria and Hezbollah.

Most of the media, consider the victory of Michel Aoun as a success for Hezbollah and the Resistance in the region. Actually it’s not far from reality. But it doesn’t mean to take no notice from this election, and the approximate victory of Hariri.

In fact, when the presidency of Michel Suleiman, former president of Lebanon had ended, March 8 alliance(Hezbollah) and March 16 alliance(Saad Hariri and allies), chose the most improbable options for presidential election: Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea. While there was no agreement on none of these two men, the escalation of conflicts in the region, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia and also America and Russia, had made it impossible to choose a president with a mutual agreement and Hezbollah had boycotted parliamentary sessions for electing the president in Lebanon.

In the last two years that presidential election had reached impasse, Hezbollah preserved its candidate and didn’t have any negotiation about this issue. It forced the opposite alliance, to pass up their candidate due to the economic and political crisis within the country. Mustaqbal party, headed by Saad Hariri, thought that by passing Samir Geagea up, the one who his name was under consideration in the incident of of kidnapping Iranian diplomats, Hezbollah will also pass Michel Aoun up and then it will be possible to have an agreement on another option. But Hezbollah was still supporting Michel Aoun and it forced Hariri to make an unpredictable move: supporting the second candidate of Hezbollah, Suleiman Frangieh.

Saad Hariri thought that with this move, Hezbollah will pass Aoun up, but not only didn’t it happen, but also Geagea started supporting his former rival, Michel Aoun.

Finally Hariri accepted to support Aoun for being the Prime Minister and the candidate of Hezbollah became the thirteen’s president of Lebanon. It seems that we need to consider this game as a win-win for both sides. Due to these reasons Hezbollah’s absolute victory analysis, faces some doubts:

Despite Hassan Nasrallah’s emphasis , about continuing alignment with Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal movement, and Suleiman Frangieh, their Christian ally, they have not willing to support Michel Aoun. And for the first time in recent years, they’re separating their way from Hezbollah in a political issue. There is also the possibility of rising tensions because of the formation of the government.

In fact at this point, supporting Michel Aoun, has caused a decrease of about 20 parliament deputies for Hezbollah. Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has hoped that after forming the government, Hezbollah, Berri and Frangieh will be again allies.

Unlike Nabih Berri or even Suleiman Frangieh you cannot consider Michel Aoun who has his special and unique political personality, to have the same opinions as the Resistance or Hezbollah. It’s only the strategic alliance since 2006 that caused an agreement between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, because of helping country’s advancement. Actually the circumstances may change due to political situation of the country and the region over the time.

Aoun has spent more than 80 years of his life, while he has no son to substitute. The Free Patriotic Movement has recently placed Gebran Bassil, his elder groom as the party leader. Bassil is the current Foreign Minister of Lebanon. He is not very popular among the Lebanese, even Hezbollah’s fans. There’s a growing concern about him if he’s handling operational affairs of the President. This can lead to an escalation of the conflicts in the country.

Five years ago, with resignation of the ministers in favor of Michel Aoun, Saad Hariri’s government had not achieved the quorum and then he was forced to leave Beirut. But now he’s returned again because of supporting Aoun. It considers as a big success for him.

However, we shouldn’t consider that the political game in Lebanon is ended. There will be 3 other hard phases. A probable disagreement on them can delay the administrative process in Lebanon for months:

A coalition, from 18 tribes and groups. It was always and still is one of the most difficult issues in Lebanon.

The governmental statement that should be issued when each government start to work. It’s common to support the resistance weapon in the statement. But this time it’s unlikely from Saad Hariri to publish his statement this way.

Relations with their most important neighbor, Syria. The difference between the vision of Michel Aoun and Saad Hariri on this matter, as the president and the prime minister, will surely create a serious crisis. Now we have to wait and see how will be the future of the most political country in Middle East.